Rockcliffe Capital Initiates Coverage on Shopify Inc. (TSX: SHOP | NYSE: SHOP) with a "BUY" Rating and 12-Month Price Target of $130 USD
TORONTO, June 19, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Rockcliffe Capital is pleased to announce the initiation of equity research coverage on Shopify Inc. (TSX/NYSE:SHOP), one of North America's leading cloud-based commerce platforms empowering millions of merchants globally.
Following a comprehensive fundamental and technical review, Rockcliffe Capital assigns Shopify a "BUY" rating, supported by a 12-month price target of $130 USD, representing meaningful upside from current levels.
"Shopify stands at the intersection of software, e-commerce, and AI—a rare combination that positions it as a foundational platform for the future of global retail," said Felix Gelt, Managing Director of Research at Rockcliffe Capital. "Its durable growth, consistent free cash flow margins, and deep investments in AI make it a generational compounder."
Investment Thesis Highlights:
• Sustainable Growth: Revenue rose 27% year-over-year in Q1 2025 to $2.36 billion, driven by continued GMV expansion and international strength.
• Strong Cash Flow Profile: 15% free cash flow margin in the last quarter, with management guiding toward mid-teens margins in Q2.
• AI & Enterprise Tailwinds: New generative AI tools, including "Sidekick," and accelerated enterprise adoption are expected to drive next-phase monetization.
• Global Reach, Expanding TAM: Operating in 175+ countries, with increasing traction across emerging markets and B2B verticals.
Valuation & Target:
Rockcliffe Capital's proprietary model assigns Shopify a 2026E EV/Revenue multiple of ~18x, reflecting its leadership in e-commerce infrastructure and upcoming monetization from AI and enterprise. Our $130 USD price target reflects a base-case scenario with upside potential through further international penetration and SaaS revenue lift.
Risk Factors:
Key risks include macroeconomic pressure on discretionary spending, increased platform competition, and possible volatility tied to Shopify's strategic equity investments. However, we believe these are well-managed within the current roadmap and capital structure.
About Rockcliffe Capital Research
Rockcliffe Capital's Research Department provides institutional-grade equity research focused on growth-stage companies, public markets, and high-conviction investment themes. Through rigorous analysis, proprietary modeling, and deep sector insights, our research team supports investors, issuers, and strategic partners in identifying value and making informed decisions.
Our coverage includes detailed valuation frameworks, peer comparisons, financial modeling, and ESG scorecards—delivering the intelligence that drives market leadership.
Please contact [email protected] for access to our full research suite and initiation reports.
Media Contact
Rockcliffe Capital
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+1 (416)-642-1967
This press release is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Rockcliffe Capital and its affiliates may hold positions in the securities mentioned.
